Alright, another quarter, another earnings preview. Nebius (NBIS), huh? I swear, these deep value plays are either genius or a complete waste of time. There's never an in-between. This Vineland "ramp" is supposedly the key. Key to what? Not going bankrupt? Key to finally justifying the insane risk I'm taking holding these shares? Let's be real.
This analyst – some aerospace engineer turned day trader – is banking on this ramp to hit full-year targets. Says he likes stocks that have been beaten down by "non-recurrent events" and insiders buying shares. Okay, that's a strategy. A risky one, but a strategy nonetheless. But are these "non-recurrent events" really non-recurrent, or are they just the company's usual M.O.? That's the question I'm asking.
He does the whole fundamental analysis thing – leverage, financial ratios, blah, blah. Compares it to industry averages. Fine. But here's the thing: averages are just that – average. Nebius needs to be above average to justify the risk. Otherwise, why not just buy an index fund and call it a day?
And this "professional background check" on insiders? What's that even entail? Does he call their ex-wives? Check their LinkedIn profiles? I mean, come on. It probably just means he Googled them and saw they didn't have any major lawsuits pending. Which, honestly, isn't saying much.
Then there's the technical analysis. "Multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts." Oh, boy. Sounds like someone's been watching too many YouTube videos. Look, I'm not saying technical analysis is useless, but it's not exactly rocket science—wait, actually, maybe it is, considering this guy's background. But still. Drawing some pretty lines on a chart doesn't guarantee anything.
He even admits his options are so illiquid you could "land a Jumbo on the spread and still have clearance for take-off." That's… not exactly confidence-inspiring. It's more like a flashing red light saying, "Abandon ship!" What if Vineland doesn't ramp up? What if those "non-recurrent events" keep recurring? This whole thing feels like gambling, not investing. And I don't even like gambling.
Offcourse, I'm sitting here with a chunk of my portfolio tied up in this, so maybe I'm just trying to rationalize my poor life choices. Maybe Vineland will be the catalyst. Maybe this aerospace engineer knows something I don't. Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. According to Nebius Q3 Earnings Preview: Vineland Ramp Is The Key Catalyst For Full-Year Targets (NASDAQ:NBIS), the Vineland ramp is indeed the key catalyst for full-year targets.
It all comes down to this Vineland ramp. If it happens, we're golden. If it doesn't... well, let's not think about that. I need a drink. Or maybe just a long walk off a short pier. Either way, this earnings preview is just another reminder of how much I hate the stock market. It's all speculation, all hype, and very little substance. And I'm stuck in the middle of it, hoping I don't lose my shirt. Or pants. Or, you know, my entire investment portfolio.
